Lip Up Fatih !
August 3, 2009
If there was ever doubt in my mind that times are a changin’ it was dispelled by Fatih Birol, the Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA) who, in an interview with The Independent, today predicted an ‘oil crunch’ within the next 5 years. For those outside the in-crowd, the IEA has historically been the OECD’s oil, sorry, energy analyst of choice, collating and distributing data on energy production and use around the world. Its data is about as hard as it gets and the WEO (World Energy Outlook) series are required reading for anyone with an interest in energy. These are no sandal-wearing, tofu munching, beardy wierdies. They are people who know the energy business from the inside out.
The IEA has been executing what is starting to look dangerously like a 180 degree turn over the last year or two, but to hear Dr Birol say that we have 5 years before the OECD is in hoc to the Gulf states is stark to say the least. I can’t say that I’m massively surprised by the information, but its a bit of a shock to hear who is saying it and in what terms.
So what does that mean ? My guess is that we are going to start to see some ‘encouragement’ given to oil exploration outside the Middle East as well as accelerated investment in non-oil based transport systems. A few weeks ago I was at the Royal Society where the head of research for Toyota’s fuel cell division (Dr Hirose) said that Japan was ready and raring to do a commercial roll-out of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in 2015. I admit I scoffed. Maybe I should re-think.
First item on my shopping list – get my Land Rover converted to run on LPG. I tried about 18 months ago but the garage put the price up on me because we were in the middle of that price spike.
Trends or Noise ?
May 11, 2009
So what have we seen over the last couple of months that is significant ? In my opinion these are the big energy stories;
The Yucca Mountain waste depository was cancelled and the US made new moves towards getting START-III up and running before START-II runs out. For me this is a clear signal from the new US administration that any new nuclear will come with moves towards uranium self-sufficiency through reprocessing. The HEU from disarmament will plug some of the the gap in fuel supplies until the US has reprocessing up and running. The US has benefited the ‘peace dividend’ and appears to want that benefit to continue. Around 10% of nuclear electricity generated over the last 20 years in the USA has used recycled Russian warheads. I haven’t managed to find out the amount of fissile material from decommissioned American bombs used for power generation (yet). For any remaining doubters on US nuclear energy policy I’d just say this – you don’t hire a nuclear physicist to run your energy department and expect him to ditch his Nobel prize-winning subject. Check out his confirmation speach here
Miliband has been to China to report that the UK is ready and willing to do a deal on the latest in CCS tech. The UK government has committed to at least three CCS developments, probably four. In contrast to the half-arsed single site competition previously announced, this gives the opportunity to explore the different technologies in parallel. The money is significant and so was the trip straight to China to finalise a technology transfer deal that sees the UK and China both contribute equally to the organisation (£5m each to set up the organisation). Miliband then went on the Andrew Marr show to trumpet the developments and got mugged as the government rep over the expenses row, though apparently he himself is pretty clean. He was trying to say something about electric car tech and China, but didn’t manage to get it out. I expect the tech transfer back to the UK to include guaranteed supplies of rare earth magnets and rechargable batteries, but that’s conjecture at present. Lets not get too carried away with what will be coming back, it feels much more like a cash for ideas deal to me.
From other sources we are told that Chinese entrepreneurs are massing at Europe’s doors to invest inwards and are targeting the UK specifically. I’m constantly mystified by the global attention that we get. The Arabs, the Russians and now the Chinese. I need to speak to some people from overseas to clear this up.
Right now, to me, it looks like the movement to non-fuel energy sources (the new terminology starts here) will be demand driven over the next 50 years rather than government driven over the next 15. Or I may just be seeing things in the media static, who knows.
Update on the China deal – apparently it covers nuclear, wind, marine and ‘renewables’. The cities of Wuhan and Chonqing are to be the pilots for development of sustainable cities. To me the biggest deal though is that China is going to let UK companies list on its stock exchange thus opening direct access to Chinese investors.
