In recent years the terms Critical Minerals, Strategic Minerals and even Vital Minerals have been coined and presumably coin has been turned on their basis.

These divisions have resulted in endless lists and explanations of which minerals are which, who thinks so and why. Indeed I was been party to this in the early days, however you know things have got silly when an article arrives that lists every element as critical and only excepts two. If it were written ironically I would let it pass.

What must be recognised is that ‘criticality’ is completely relative. It depends on the technology, who you are in the technology cycle and where (geographically and economically) you are speaking from. In fact as I argued in a short note to the UK’s Energy Research Council Network just before Parliament took representations from our learned societies on this topic, what you define as critical defines you.

Maybe these terms have use in policy-making circles, but having spoken to academics and NGOs on the topic I don’t think that’s true. They are generally more confused by the use of these terms than they were before. They can cope with specifics. They are not dumb.

We, in the mining industry, should not be complicit in confusing investors or legislators by wanton rebranding with meaningless jargon. It is difficult enough to persuade the non-mining world that mines are a necessary evil without obsfucation.

This trend appears to have started with the USA pre-occupation with energy independence and its false hope of controlling all elements of its energy cycle. It is a false hope because energy is global cycle not a national one. The separation of supply chains using national security as justification is the basest form of resource nationalism and not one becoming of the world’s biggest economy. It is not surprising that China reacts to this kind of posturing with a robust economic response. It knows that any comment from the WTO on this topic is bluster, at best.

Mining is an exercise in coping with living on a planet whose resources are not distributed evenly. Always has been. Always will be. The sudden realisation, from outside the industry, that the technological world would grind to a halt for the want of a iron nail should not deflect us from providing that nail and millions like it every day.

There is virtually no industrial metals mining left in the USA and those of us who operate outside that dysfunctional legislature should not be drawn into its often bizarre internal politics. Let us concentrate on supplying those nails at the best possible price and let the US increase its own transaction costs to the point where it has no industry left. Then maybe we can call a metal a metal.

PS. the two elements omitted from the ridiculous ‘critical’ list – iron & aluminium, the two most used metals in society today.

Published at http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-index.php?page_ref_id=1871

Dear All,

By way of a reply to Jeff’s short piece on Rare Earth Elements and in the hope that the UK takes a rational view on mineral supply chain policy I bring the following points to the table.

1. REEs are found at economic grades on 5 continents. We let China mine them because they have a peculiar deposit that has very little associated radioactivity. Yes, labour is cheap, but the price differential compared with, for example Australian deposits is mainly in the processing. Chinese artisinal miners can mine and partially process the ore from the Baotau deposit without worrying about the uranium and thorium minerals that come with REEs almost everywhere else in the world. We in the west don’t like to mine REEs because the come from ‘hot’ granites and we have to deal with the waste accordingly.
2. There is a credible suggestion that China has only kicked up a fuss over REEs because Greenland was equivocating over whether to allow development of its world-class mixed REE/uranium deposits.
3. REEs are not alone in being of concern to policy-makers. The wider minerals supply chain is currently being viewed through the lens of what should probably be known as The Critical Minerals Discourse. The USA, the EU, Japan and China have all put in place policy or are in the process of putting in place policy with regard to the minerals that each economic bloc feels are most critical under their own definitions. For the US supplies of minerals that it feels are necessary for military superiority are key, for the EU its economic stability but with a special reference to nuclear technologies, for Japan its metals necessary to drive its auto export industry and for China there is a real mix of developmental metals and high tech metals. The UK’s report was carried out from completely the wrong perspective and has little relevance to the global minerals trade.
4. So far the world has listed 34 minerals as ‘critical’. REEs are only one group. If there is a bubble every time a new piece of technology comes to the fore then we should prepare for many, many more bubbles. My bet for the next good bubble, on the basis of the energy technologies that I know are in the pipeline, is ruthenium. It’s a by-product of platinum processing but is currently mostly poured away with waste. Bubbles are no good for the mining industry because they inject uncertainty into future pricing. It takes 5-50 years to develop a mine and its difficult enough convincing investors to take a risk on metals prices without hyperinflation of specific products due to policy intervention or media hype. Everyone in the business knows that bad decisions get made in bubble conditions and mines funded in those times close quickly.
5. Larger miners are generally not interested in the kind of materials that are currently considered critical because the products are low volume and so relatively low profit. The smaller miners that we are relying on to bring us these critical minerals are therefore higher risk investments as they are usually undercapitalised.
6. Every report published on critical minerals in the last 10 years is wrong. The EU’s report is least wrong. They are wrong because they concentrate on the minerals critical to advanced manufacturing and not the minerals necessary to support a basic public infrastructure. This means that we have the ridiculous situation whereby food is deemed less important than magnets and shelter is seen as less critical than night-vision goggles. We have used REEs for less than 100 years. In less than 10 years they have apparently become more critical to survival than phosphates or aggregates. They are not and never will be as important to long-term human survival as fertilizer or building materials, and they will never be as important as copper is in technological terms. So please, a sense of perspective. If you really want to get into a justifiable panic do it over being able to electrify the world using copper wire, because there is a genuine risk that we will not be able to bring electricity to everyone for lack of the red metal over the next 50-100 years, but we have policies in the UK that allow or even promote disposal of large amounts of copper in preference to recycling.

A final note on the energy efficiency of metals cycles; recycling of critical minerals is underdeveloped in most cases and impossible in some due to their mode of use. REEs for example are mostly used in alloy or in mixed oxide form, so present a difficult recycling target, while other critical metals such as tungsten and cobalt are already recycled to a high degree because their uses are constrained in high value sectors and relatively pure forms. But as a sector the volumes of critical minerals are so low that energy efficiency in their supply chains is not as big a deal as it is in, for example aluminium, zinc, copper or nickel. For example, while the UK may boast a headline copper recycling figure of 80%, the vast majority of that metal recycled never makes it into product before it is shipped back to copper smelters to be re-formed into ‘virgin’ forms for re-use. So an individual copper atom may be shipped back and forth across the world 4 or 5 times before it actually gets used in a technology and the chances that it gets recycled after it has been embodied in a product is virtually nil. Only around 10% of ‘old scrap’ copper is recycled in the UK and the figure is similar across Europe once you dig through the rhetoric.

The urban mining movement has a potential economic value of over $50bn per year in copper and gold alone and yet we export end-of-life products and e-waste to China by the shipload. Contrary to received wisdom China is currently the leader in e-waste recycling, both by value and technology, and is publishing paper after paper on the automation of that process. We are their mine for this raw material and they get it at knock-down prices because we have the wrong end of the stick with regards to its value. So in my mini-polemic I plead for a rational view on minerals, their supply chains and their use. Be concerned over mineral supplies, but be concerned over those supplies that actually matter not the ones where you have a choice over whether they matter or not. Your definition of ‘critical’ minerals defines you.

Update:
A Reuters piece on the same subject

In the past it was usually considered an advantage to have someone at the top of government fighting for their constituency and its interests. The member for Sheffield Hallam appear to wish to buck this trend and make his constituency suffer for voting for him.

Back in March I commented on the government loan guarantee of £80m to the Sheffield Forgemasters in order to build a world-leading 15kt forge press that would enable Britain to become a significant player in nuclear manufacturing for decades to come. The cost to the tax payer about £20m over 5 years in opportunity cost (things that we could have done with the cash).

Well the recent announcement that this loan guarantee is to be cut shows exactly what our new government thinks of UK manufacturing – it couldn’t care a toss. What Nick Clegg thinks of Sheffield – he’d rather kick them in the nuts than stand up to his public school buddy. How far our new chancellor looks when he tries to balance the books – no further than two years out. How much influence that DECC has on energy system planning – zero. And how bloody stupid partisan government can be when faced with a choice that involves long term thinking.

The argument is that this loan constitutes a subsidy to the nuclear industry and the new govt has said no public money to that industry. They are still quite happy to pile cash into windmills, solar panels for the top of your house and subsidise coal and CCS, but building an export capacity that would bring in millions every year from outside our shores. Apparently thats bad news. Not to mention how long it will take to wait for any new nuclear build within the UK with the only other forge press in Japan booked up years in advance.
Even Chris Goodall at Carbon Commentry thinks its a bad idea.

I’m not prone to swearing, but this is a bloody stupid idea and if I were in Sheffield (or staying at my Gran’s old house 10 miles away) I would be demonstrating outside Clegg’s front door irrespective of whether he’s now in his grace and favour mansion or not.

What a difference a year makes !

Last year was full of hope. Openness and interdisciplinarity was part of the deal. Media exposure was integral to the design of the event.
This year the doors closed. Chatham House rules were imposed (and this report is composed under those restrictions). No media were there to report (though some did attend).

So what did we discuss at this exclusive event ?

Well. It became apparent that attendees saw the exclusivity as part of a wider trend (though they didn’t apparently see themselves as contributary to that trend). The phrase ‘decisions made in smoke filled rooms’ was one that was heard in more than one session. Speakers seemed less open to suggestions and there was a definite sense of ranks closing.

Partly this was put down to the relative success of the climate skeptic movement and the failure of COP15, but also to the new government’s policy set and approach so far. However, as a newcomer to this ‘scene’ I can’t help feeling this is the way that the regulars prefer it.

Fuel poverty seems to be taking a back seat with some kind of diluted concept of equitable apportionment of cost taking over. A greater focus on real politique and economics rather than innovation was evident. Argument rather than advance you could say. Calls for quick action, some action, any action seemed like a call to spend money rather than a call to change systemic conditions. Gone was the rhetoric of radical progress. In came the mumbled apologies of compromise.

So the UK Conservative party want to build a Green Investment Bank to consolidate all the funding functions currently held by bodies such as The Carbon Trust and the Marine Renewables Deployment Fund.
Fair enough, seems like a good idea. Use ISAs to fund it ? Again, no objections there.

Here’s what it needs to be successful;
A strong research department.

That’s it. Nothing else. Just a set of market savvy investment analysts to make sure that the technologies and projects that are being invested in are not complete trash. It won’t be able to afford the best brokers or indeed the best analysts, but then its aim is not to outperform the market. It would be good for the country if it did, home-grown profits count double in this game, but there is no shareholder imperative to work against (or indeed with) so fiduciary responsibility is replaced by electoral responsibility.

The analysts need to have cross-sectoral visibility so that they are not working against each other but apart from that nothing special needs to be in place, except some independent oversight to build confidence in the market that these are kosher companies with realistic chances of commercial success.

Of course if the worst happens and all its investments come to nought, that could be a lot of cash that the govt has to refund to the ISA holders, but presumably there will be some form of hedge against catastrophic loss.

We’ll have to wait and see what Labour’s equivalent looks like when the last pre-election budget is announced on Wednesday, but Reuters is reporting a £2bn investment fund with half from assets sales and half from private investment. I’m sure that there will be more detail than that, but if Alistair Darling’s announcement conforms to the leak, sorry briefing, then it really isn’t very imaginative. Its just another pot of cash with another set of criteria. £2bn isn’t enough to kick-start any major infrastructure projects (the super grid is estimated at around £30bn, the high speed rail at £30bn and each of the 8-12 new nuclear reactors is supposed to be around £5bn (very roughly)), so you have to ask where is this money aimed at ? We’ll find out on Wednesday I suppose.

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